
The Palestinian reconciliation deal was driven by a number of factors: Hamas’s new leadership; its failure to govern Gaza; the respective roles played by two arch-rivals Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas and former senior Fatah official Muhammad Dahlan, who each tried to make use of Hamas’ strategic weakness to advance their own interests; the role of Egypt, which utilised its close relations with all the relevant parties to prise Hamas away from ISIS in the Sinai; and the upcoming launch of a US-initiated peace process.
The advantages for the UK, US and Israel are that this turns Hamas away from Qatar and towards Egypt and the UAE, creates the conditions to address the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, and enhances the potential for a long-term ceasefire between Hamas and Israel.
Hamas is being pragmatic but the unity deal with the PA does not represent a change of ideology. Hamas is not going to give up its military wing, forsake its Islamist character or agree to recognize Israel.
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